Outlook to 2030, 20th Edition
Geopolitical risk and Security-of-Supply
The dominance of China in the rare earths industry has long been identified by other major markets, though the implementation of strategies to reduce dependency on Chinese supplies has gathered pace since mid-2019, with direct involvement by US, Russian, EU and Japanese governance. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has highlighted further the dependency of RE consumers outside of China on Chinese derived supply, though has also raised concerns within the Chinese domestic market regarding the availability of suitable feedstock leading some Chinese-based processors to look increasingly to imports. Whilst China retains its dominant position in both rare earth supply and demand, the increase in non-Chinese affiliated mine and refined rare earth production is a key trend, required not only to meet increasing global demand, but to fulfil the changing requirements of downstream consumers with regards to security of supply and ESG regulation. Roskill’s Rare Earths: Outlook to 2030 report provides a detailed analysis of the complete rare earths industry, allowing the reader to quickly comprehend market dynamics, and understand with confidence future supply, demand and pricing to identify key opportunities.
Chinese dominance continues
In 2020, Chinese mine production of rare earths is expected to reach 110kt, falling back from 2019, though continuing to represent >55% of global mine output. Production at both the mining and refined stages is controlled by quotas assigned to six state-owned enterprises, which are highly integrated throughout the rare earth supply chain. Non-Chinese mine production has increased significantly since 2015, with multiple producers achieving production of rare earth mineral concentrates as of 2020, though much of this feedstock is destined for the Chinese domestic market.
Green applications underpin demand growth
The demand for rare earth elements is predominantly in the form of separated rare earth elements, as most end-use applications require only one or two separated rare earth compounds or products. Whilst growth in rare earth demand is expected to fall back in 2020, as a result of COVID19 related disruptions to industrial production, a strong recovery in demand is forecast in 2021, increasing by 10% y-on-y. The recovery and subsequent demand growth are underpinned by a ‘Green Agenda’ which is being targeted by many national governments and international bodies looking to reduce carbon-emissions. Rare earth products are widely used in the generation of renewable energy and in zero-low emissions transport, via the use of rare earth permanent magnets in wind turbines and in the drive train of hybrid and electric vehicles.
Tight supply expected towards 2030
Rare earth permanent magnet applications are expected to form 29% of total demand in 2020, the largest single end use, consuming a mixture of neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), dysprosium (Dy), along with other elements used at fillers such as cerium (Ce) and gadolinium (Gd). Roskill’s Rare Earths Market Outlook report to 2030 provides a detailed breakdown of demand, evaluating industry and technological trends and their impact on the consumption of each element by end-use market. By 2030, rare earth magnet applications are forecast to account for ~40% of total demand, raising potential for a tight supply-demand balance for key magnetic rare earth elements, providing opportunity for new production capacity to be financed, constructed and commissioned.
Roskill Experts will answer your questions…
- How will the development of regional supply chains impact supply availability?
- Who are the major producers of light and heavy rare earths globally?
- Where will new sources of mined and refined rare earth supply come from?
- How will prices of rare earths products perform to 2030?
- What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the rare earth industry?
- How will growth in green technologies impact long-term rare earth demand growth?
- Which rare earth products will be required by key end-use applications?
- How important will secondary sources of rare earths products become?
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- Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
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- Option to download tables and graphs from the report
- A summary PowerPoint of key report findings