Electric Vehicles: Additional 9M EV sales required to meet emissions targets

Ev charge point over a panoramic of a smog hazed city

On October 6th, the European Parliament voted on new targets aimed at speeding-up the decarbonisation of the economy.  The new regulation targets a 60% decrease in CO2 emissions against emissions levels in 1990, compared to the previous target of a 40% reduction.  The introduction of the new target will require a great proportion of vehicle sales in the Western Europe to be xEVs, with xEV sales in the Western Europe forecast to increase by 700% over the period to 2030.

Using the latest available CO2 emission data, EU countries accounted for 4,483Mt CO2 equivalent emissions in 2017, with almost 70% coming from 3 sectors – Energy supply, Industry and Transportation.  Road transport in particular was responsible for 21% of all emissions during 2017. New regulation suggests that by 2030 total emissions by all sectors should reach the level of 2,261Mt CO2 equivalent, to achieve the 60% decrease on 1990 levels.

In order to meet new targets of road transportation emissions, xEV sales penetration will be required to increase further from the existing 2030 target of 35%. Though new official targets were not yet published, as new packages need to be approved by local governments, the severity of the change in the CO2 emissions targets will require old targets to be increased at least by 50% in order to decrease emissions and achieve their contribution to decarbonization.

Translating the new targets to changes in EV sales, Roskill estimates that an additional 9M xEVs will be required over the period to 2030 in the Western European countries, with total sales of xEVs reaching 11.5M units. These sales levels imply a market penetration rate of almost 80% for EVs, a very ambitious target for all governments involved.

xEV sales in Western Europe, 2019-2030, (M units)

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